Carterton-Witney-Oxford Rail Corridor Study by Cadenza Transport Consulting – a synthesis and response from the West Oxfordshire Transport Group
The long-awaited consultancy report on the prospects for a railway from Oxford to Eynsham, Witney and Carterton has just been released. Written by Cadenza Transport Consulting for Oxford County Council, the report is available at: https://news.oxfordshire.gov.uk/oxford-witney-and-carterton-rail-link-feasibility-study-is-published-in-full/
It’s all about the economy.
The Cadenza report is a remarkable document, less about transport along the overcrowded corridor from Oxford to the West than about the economic and social prospects of West Oxfordshire. It is a long and detailed report that has gone largely unread by those who are quick to be shocked by how much a railway will cost and slow to realise that the railway now offers the only realistic way to avoid economic stagnation in West Oxfordshire.
Cadenza notes that the problem of the A40 in West Oxfordshire is now so severe that the usual approach to its solution is no longer appropriate. The usual approach is to build ever more new houses along the A40 corridor, the only route westwards from Oxford, hoping that developers and one level or another of government will then pay for the infrastructure required to make living in the new houses practicable. It is estimated that the population of West Oxfordshire will grow by 19% between 2018 and 2028, and infrastructure growth has not kept pace. Transport is the most laggardly and regularly tops the list of issues infuriating the local electorate. But developers tend to renege on their promises, as do governments, given the challenges presented by election cycles. The typical transport project is a disjointed selection of inefficient, ineffective and expensive roadworks. The Cadenza report observes that infrastructure must precede housing and that a railway – and only a railway – can guarantee infrastructure delivery before housing delivery.
There are no other options.
Inherent in the usual approach to the A40 problem is a desultory debate on alternatives to the road. Suggestions of a cable car between Witney and Oxford or moving pavements only distract from more serious options. Cadenza rapidly disposes of the least impractical of these: technical problems render the North Cotswold line unable to relieve pressure on the A40, there is no tram network to which an A40 tram could link without digging up many of Oxford’s streets, and a bus service is restricted by congestion on the road. Little is heard these days of Oxfordshire Connect, the County Council’s master plan, which scarcely considered the A40 corridor and seems to have fallen victim to the electoral cycle. Every few years, a storm of public indignation at decades of congestion on the A40 is mollified by the promise of a new junction here, a bit of dualling there, or a few hundred meters of bus lane. It can always be shown that tinkering with the roadway has a favourable benefit: cost ratio – at least for a while.
The Cadenza report is scathing about this usual approach and the crisis it has produced. From 2031, congestion on the A40 will make West Oxfordshire not just less rich but actually poorer. Regional deterioration is anticipated as employers go elsewhere, jobs are lost, and houses stand empty, much like the shops already abandoned on our high streets. Cadenza argues that this benefit:cost approach focussed on the A40 is impoverishing the region:
The combination of rising demand within the highly constrained transport corridor of the A40 is set to reach practical capacity by about 2031, by which time journey time and reliability will be so poor that it is likely to have a significantly detrimental impact on the economies of Carterton, Witney, Eynsham and Oxford. (para 8.6.1)
Cadenza goes further; what is required is not simply a solution to a transport problem but an ‘economic enabler’ capable of reversing the economic and social decline of West Oxfordshire:
… what has become clear in examining this proposal is that it is not solely a rail, or even a transport, scheme. Improvements in the A40 corridor are an economic enabler in the Oxford area…
Par 7.1 Cadenza
The report pulls no punches, making clear that doing nothing (or next to nothing) is not an option.
… the do nothing option leads to strongly negative outcomes … the real costs of decline through economic and social stagnation will become more and more apparent over time.
Para 7.7 Cadenza
… do nothing … implies a significant and likely unacceptable reduction in economic activity if local residents cannot access employment or have to disrupt family life in order to take advantage of acceptable car journey speeds only available at anti-social times of day.
Para 7.7 Cadenza
It is unfair to castigate the usual approach to the A40 problem as doing absolutely or nearly nothing. Rather the usual approach should be seen as doing enough for the moment.
More roads?
Road improvements to ease traffic congestion tend to attract even more vehicles, thus resurrecting the problem they were supposed to solve. The current roadworks on the A40, the bus lanes and the park and ride at Eynsham will be overwhelmed by congestion by 2031 – and they are not even in operation yet. The roadworks will delay gridlock for a few years, when more sticking plaster will be required. The usual approach satisfies no one for long, it is disruptive and extremely expensive.
… there is no ‘do-nothing’ option: failure to act will lead to negative economic outcomes, and alternative means of avoiding these (e.g. road improvements) are of a similar order of magnitude of cost.
Para 8.1 Cadenza
Whereas most transport schemes benefit from marginal journey time improvements, the real benefit of this scheme is that of an economic enabler, unlocking sustainable development and jobs that are unlikely to exist without it. More than that, a failure to begin the process of enabling transport capacity and resilience in the A40 corridor is likely to steadily starve both Oxford and the West Oxfordshire towns of affordable homes and accessible jobs. (para 7.8)
The Cadenza report is clear that the usual approach has become fundamentally and dangerously wrong. The congestion anticipated by 2031 (the report estimates that morning peak journey times from Witney to Oxford will be 30 minutes longer by then and that buses will be operating at economic and practical capacity) will be so serious that it will not be enough for local politicians to show they are addressing the problem, which always means tinkering with the road.
An alternative highways-based strategy to meet capacity would require significant further A40 widening or an additional major road, which would cost a similar amount to the railway but be more disruptive to construct, increase parking problems in Oxford, conflict with OCC policy to reduce car travel and be unable to provide the capacity or journey time benefits a railway would bring. (para 8.6.4)
Rail advantages.
West Oxfordshire has advantages to offer a railway but not other modes of travel. Having its three largest settlements in a line is no small advantage – but only if there is to be a railway. Having a population wealthy enough to afford land value capture for ready access to efficient transport is a huge advantage – but only if there is to be a railway and if local authorities establish where stations are to be in time for developers to exact a charge. A further advantage is that the heavy rail that provides serious public transport can also connect to the existing rail network and that the battery-powered trains recommended in the Cadenza report will go some way towards meeting the council’s greenhouse obligations. But these advantages have to be seized if West Oxfordshire is to avoid economic decline:
A railway would provide the capacity and journey times that would make living in Carterton / Witney / Eynsham and working (or studying, etc.) in Oxford a viable and sustainable way of life. Businesses could then invest in Oxford or the three towns knowing that employees could reliably and quickly get to work. In turn, that would unlock land for sustainable development to meet the needs for affordable housing, adding land value which could be used in part to support the delivery of the railway and economic value to Oxfordshire, which is widely considered an unaffordable place to live for many (para 8.5)
Put bluntly, whatever a railway costs will be less than the cost of not having a railway: The gross cost of constructing a railway is therefore not the appropriate cost to put in an appraisal – one needs to net off the costs of not doing a railway, as opposed to ‘doing nothing’, as well as taking into account the expected contribution from Land Value Capture resulting from the increase in accessibility. (para 7.3.1)
Rail costs – the same as new roads!
The all-in cost of heavy rail along the A40 corridor is estimated to be something like £900 million. At about £35.6 million per route kilometre, this is the same order of magnitude as the current A40 works package, likely to be overwhelmed by congestion shortly after completion.
Cadenza calculates that an extra 600 jobs and land value capture – the former facilitated by the railway and the latter possible only with a railway – would pay for the railway’s construction:
… just 600 jobs plus LVC could potentially deliver the highest cost railway scheme … (para 7.8)
The stretch from Oxford to Eynsham could be completed by 2033, just about in time to compensate for the failure of the current A40 roadworks, with full connection from Oxford to Carterton from 2035. A reliable half-hourly service is anticipated as are journey times currently almost unimaginable:
Witney Oxford Transport Group 
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